Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.049705 0.056431 0.063943 0.072994 0.083655 0.095875 0.111033
2026-01-11 0.040794 0.049435 0.059895 0.073630 0.091402 0.113910 0.145048
2026-01-18 0.034191 0.043809 0.056293 0.073996 0.098970 0.133752 0.187352
2026-01-25 0.028386 0.038169 0.051671 0.072189 0.103546 0.151366 0.233389
2026-02-01 0.023441 0.032867 0.046594 0.068790 0.105306 0.165996 0.281668
2026-02-08 0.020417 0.029820 0.044258 0.069114 0.113244 0.193626 0.365784
2026-02-15 0.017968 0.027247 0.042213 0.069558 0.121843 0.226251 0.478866
2026-02-22 0.016102 0.025300 0.040854 0.070970 0.132993 0.269175 0.644945
2026-03-01 0.014482 0.023508 0.039451 0.072059 0.144208 0.318339 0.869438
2026-03-08 0.012808 0.021370 0.037065 0.070725 0.150089 0.358896 1.112170
2026-03-15 0.011017 0.018770 0.033392 0.065930 0.146609 0.374301 1.291976
2026-03-22 0.010043 0.017546 0.032193 0.066303 0.156386 0.434634 1.736194
2026-03-29 0.009301 0.016685 0.031636 0.068196 0.171678 0.525751 2.505381
2026-04-05 0.008545 0.015690 0.030636 0.068832 0.184104 0.619008 3.532549
2026-04-12 0.007864 0.014755 0.029614 0.069212 0.196356 0.725228 5.018457
2026-04-19 0.007137 0.013629 0.027980 0.067580 0.201587 0.808575 6.696665
2026-04-26 0.006414 0.012423 0.025979 0.064468 0.200539 0.863399 8.415287
2026-05-03 0.005971 0.011777 0.025214 0.064790 0.212946 1.008897 12.426072
2026-05-10 0.005583 0.011201 0.024530 0.065218 0.226424 1.183738 18.898298
2026-05-17 0.005275 0.010773 0.024151 0.066539 0.244929 1.427781 31.153629
2026-05-24 0.004984 0.010345 0.023707 0.067559 0.263146 1.710820 52.676076
2026-05-31 0.004632 0.009735 0.022682 0.066337 0.270052 1.917332 80.074968
2026-06-07 0.004197 0.008879 0.020873 0.061907 0.258189 1.925761 96.555847